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Al-Hidd vs AAli FC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Al-Hidd

PPG 1.11 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

AAli FC

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-111.3%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.8%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.8%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.6% 47.6% 2.10 -18.9%

Draw 33.4% 31.3% 3.20 +6.9%

Away win 28.0% 31.3% 3.20 -10.4%

Over 2.5 36.3% 48.8% 2.05 -25.6%

Over 3.5 17.0% 27.4% 3.65 -38.0%

BTTS 44.9% 55.6% 1.80 -19.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob44.9%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 13.8%

#4 0–1✓ 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Hidd1.2

AAli FC1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 36.3% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-HIDD · PPG 1.11

AALI FC · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.11) vs Away GOOD (1.56)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Hidd (H) 38.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.9%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +6.9%

AAli FC (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Hidd face AAli FC in Bahrain - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Hidd a 39% chance, the draw 33% and AAli FC 28%, so Al-Hidd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al-Hidd and 1.0 for AAli FC (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Hidd are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.56 for AAli FC. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Al-Hidd vs AAli FC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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