Istra vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Croatia - HNL Regular Season - 33 Stadion Aldo Drosina· Pula Monday, May 4, 2026 16:00

Istra PPG 1.19

3-1 MISS

Slaven Belupo PPG 0.75

Over3.5· +7.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Slaven Belupo 32%, so Istra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Istra and 1.3 for Slaven Belupo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.75 for Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.7%

Odds: 2.54 EV: -1.7%

Draw 28.9%

Odds: 3.05 EV: -11.9%

Away 32.4%

Odds: 2.72 EV: -11.9%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.4% Odds: 2.00 +4.8%

Over 3.5 30.2% Odds: 3.55 +7.2%

BTTS 57.9% Odds: 1.70 -1.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 0-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Istra

1.46

Slaven Belupo

1.32

Model SuggestionBTTS -1.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -1.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Over3.5 (+7.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 29% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.75)