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Istra vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Regular Season - 33 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Istra

PPG 1.19 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.2%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.1%1-112.0%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 39.4% 2.54 -1.7%

Draw 28.9% 32.8% 3.05 -11.9%

Away win 32.4% 36.8% 2.72 -11.9%

Over 2.5 52.4% 50.0% 2.00 +4.8%

Over 3.5 30.2% 28.2% 3.55 +7.2%

BTTS 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 62%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.9%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra1.5

Slaven Belupo1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA · PPG 1.19

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Istra (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -1.7%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.9%

Slaven Belupo (A) 32.4%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Slaven Belupo 32%, so Istra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Istra and 1.3 for Slaven Belupo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.75 for Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Istra vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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