Today / Croatia - HNL / Istra vs Slaven Belupo

Istra vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 33 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Istra

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Slaven Belupo

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.2%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.1%1-112.0%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 39.4% 2.54 -1.7%

Draw 28.9% 32.8% 3.05 -11.9%

Away win 32.4% 36.8% 2.72 -11.9%

Over 2.5 52.4% 50.0% 2.00 +4.8%

Over 3.5 30.2% 28.2% 3.55 +7.2%

BTTS 57.9% 58.8% 1.70 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.9%

D 29% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.2%

#4 1–2 7.9%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Istra1.5

Slaven Belupo1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ISTRA · PPG 1.19

SLAVEN BELUPO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.19) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Istra (H) 38.7%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -1.7%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -11.9%

Slaven Belupo (A) 32.4%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Istra face Slaven Belupo in Croatia - HNL on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Istra a 39% chance, the draw 29% and Slaven Belupo 32%, so Istra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Istra and 1.3 for Slaven Belupo (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Istra are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.75 for Slaven Belupo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Istra vs Slaven Belupo Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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