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Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 15 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Waterford

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dundalk

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 62% chance

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.9%0-28.7%0-34.7%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.0%2-16.4%2-25.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.5%3-12.3%3-21.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 22.0% 4.55 +9.2%

Draw 28.4% 24.4% 4.10 +16.4%

Away win 47.6% 60.6% 1.65 -21.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 63.7% 1.57 -20.7%

Over 3.5 28.4% 41.7% 2.40 -31.8%

BTTS 54.8% 64.5% 1.55 -15.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.8%

A 48% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–2 8.7%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Waterford1.1

Dundalk1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WATERFORD · PPG 0.67

DUNDALK · PPG 1.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

62%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.67) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Waterford (H) 24.0%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +9.2%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +16.4%

Dundalk (A) 47.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Waterford face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Waterford a 24% chance, the draw 28% and Dundalk 48%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Waterford and 1.6 for Dundalk (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Waterford are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.00 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 3-3.

Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - Premier Division Predictions