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Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warszaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Regular Season - 31 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Polonia Bytom

PPG 1.60 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Polonia Warszaw

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.9%0-24.7%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.2%1-111.2%1-27.6%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.2%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.6%3-14.9%3-23.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.9% 40.0% 2.50 +4.8%

Draw 27.5% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 30.6% 40.8% 2.45 -25.0%

Over 2.5 57.3% 60.6% 1.65 -5.5%

Over 3.5 34.9% 40.0% 2.50 -12.8%

BTTS 61.4% 66.7% 1.50 -7.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -4.2%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.4%

H 42% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 0–0 5.1%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Polonia Bytom1.6

Polonia Warszaw1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

POLONIA BYTOM · PPG 1.60

POLONIA WARSZAW · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.73)

Win probability 1X2

Polonia Bytom (H) 41.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +4.8%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Polonia Warszaw (A) 30.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -25.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Bytom face Polonia Warszaw in Poland - I Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Bytom a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Polonia Warszaw 31%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Polonia Bytom and 1.4 for Polonia Warszaw (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Bytom are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.73 for Polonia Warszaw. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warszaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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