Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warszaw Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Poland - I Liga Regular Season - 31 Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka· Bytom Monday, May 4, 2026 16:00

Polonia Bytom PPG 1.60

3-2 MISS

Polonia Warszaw PPG 1.73

Home· +4.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Polonia Bytom face Polonia Warszaw in Poland - I Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Polonia Bytom a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Polonia Warszaw 31%, so Polonia Bytom are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Polonia Bytom and 1.4 for Polonia Warszaw (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Polonia Bytom are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.73 for Polonia Warszaw. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 41.9%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +4.8%

Draw 27.5%

Odds: 3.20 EV: -12.0%

Away 30.6%

Odds: 2.45 EV: -25.0%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 57.3% Odds: 1.65 -5.5%

Over 3.5 34.9% Odds: 2.50 -12.8%

BTTS 61.4% Odds: 1.50 -7.9%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Polonia Bytom

1.62

Polonia Warszaw

1.36

Model SuggestionBTTS -7.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -7.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+4.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.60), Away GOOD (1.73)