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Quilmes vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Regular Season - 12 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 23:00

Quilmes

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Chacarita J.

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.9%0-19.4%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.0%1-112.2%1-24.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.6%2-17.9%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.0%3-13.4%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Draw 32.7% 34.7% 2.88 -5.8%

Away win 17.8% 27.0% 3.70 -34.1%

Over 2.5 31.7% 35.1% 2.85 -9.7%

Over 3.5 13.8% 16.7% 6.00 -17.2%

BTTS 37.7% 44.4% 2.25 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 177 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 67%

ROI -1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob37.7%

H 50% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 32% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.0%

#2 0–0✓ 13.9%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 2–0 11.6%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quilmes1.3

Chacarita J.0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 31.7% · O3.5 PROB 13.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QUILMES · PPG 2.00

CHACARITA J. · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=49.5%

Win probability 1X2

Quilmes (H) 49.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +4.0%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -5.8%

Chacarita J. (A) 17.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Quilmes face Chacarita J. in Argentina - Primera Nacional on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quilmes a 50% chance, the draw 33% and Chacarita J. 18%, so Quilmes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Quilmes and 0.7 for Chacarita J. (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 32% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quilmes are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Chacarita J.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Quilmes vs Chacarita J. Prediction— Argentina - Primera Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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