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Wadi Degla vs K. Ismailia Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Relegation Group - 8 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 17:00

Wadi Degla

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

K. Ismailia

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.3%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.9%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 57.5% 1.74 -14.4%

Draw 30.1% 30.8% 3.25 -2.2%

Away win 20.7% 20.8% 4.80 -0.6%

Over 2.5 42.0% 46.5% 2.15 -9.7%

Over 3.5 21.3% 26.0% 3.85 -18.0%

BTTS 47.1% 51.8% 1.93 -9.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.1%

H 49% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wadi Degla1.5

K. Ismailia0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WADI DEGLA · PPG 1.64

K. ISMAILIA · PPG 1.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.64), Away GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Wadi Degla (H) 49.2%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -14.4%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -2.2%

K. Ismailia (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wadi Degla face K. Ismailia in Egypt - Premier League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wadi Degla a 49% chance, the draw 30% and K. Ismailia 21%, so Wadi Degla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wadi Degla and 0.9 for K. Ismailia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wadi Degla are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.64 for K. Ismailia. This match finished 1-2.

Wadi Degla vs K. Ismailia Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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