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Almeria vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Matchday 38 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 18:30

Almeria

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mirandes

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-14.0%0-22.4%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.4%1-18.8%1-25.3%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-19.7%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.9%3-17.1%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-16.5%4+-23.9%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.5% 68.5% 1.46 -14.6%

Draw 22.7% 22.5% 4.45 +1.0%

Away win 18.8% 16.1% 6.20 +16.6%

Over 2.5 65.9% 67.6% 1.48 -2.5%

Over 3.5 44.0% 46.5% 2.15 -5.4%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 54%

ROI 71.8%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 58% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 3–1 7.1%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Almeria2.2

Mirandes1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.9% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ALMERIA · PPG 2.28

MIRANDES · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

67%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.28) vs P(Home)=58.5%

Win probability 1X2

Almeria (H) 58.5%

ODDS 1.46 · IMPLIED 68.5% EV -14.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +1.0%

Mirandes (A) 18.8%

ODDS 6.20 · IMPLIED 16.1% EV +16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Almeria face Mirandes in Spain - Segunda División on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Almeria a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Mirandes 19%, so Almeria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Almeria and 1.2 for Mirandes (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Almeria are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 0.89 for Mirandes. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 4-2.

Almeria vs Mirandes Prediction— Spain - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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