Almeria vs Mirandes Prediction & Tips

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Spain - Segunda División Regular Season - 38 UD Almeria Stadium· Almeria Monday, May 4, 2026 18:30

Almeria PPG 2.28

4-2 MISS

Mirandes PPG 0.89

Away· +16.6% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 58.5%

Odds: 1.46 EV: -14.6%

Draw 22.7%

Odds: 4.45 EV: +1.0%

Away 18.8%

Odds: 6.20 EV: +16.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.9% Odds: 1.48 -2.5%

Over 3.5 44.0% Odds: 2.15 -5.4%

BTTS 63.5% Odds: 1.55 -1.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Almeria

2.19

Mirandes

1.20

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -2.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -2.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+16.6%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.28) vs P(Home)=58.5%