Cremonese vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Italy - Serie A Regular Season - 35 Stadio Giovanni Zini· Cremona Monday, May 4, 2026 16:30

Cremonese PPG 0.81

1-2 MISS

Lazio PPG 1.24

Draw· +5.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Cremonese face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cremonese a 25% chance, the draw 34% and Lazio 41%, so Lazio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cremonese and 1.2 for Lazio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cremonese are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.24 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.1%

Odds: 2.92 EV: -26.7%

Draw 34.0%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +5.4%

Away 40.8%

Odds: 2.48 EV: +1.2%

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 33.3% Odds: 2.10 -30.1%

Over 3.5 14.9% Odds: 3.80 -43.4%

BTTS 41.9% Odds: 1.80 -24.6%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 0-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Cremonese

0.87

Lazio

1.17

Model SuggestionNo Bet  NO VALUE BET
Model lean: No market reaches the 50% probability threshold — no pick suggested.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5/Under 55%

BTTS/No 47%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -26.7%

Bet Hit 40% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.81) vs Away AVERAGE (1.24)