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Cremonese vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Matchday 35 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:30

Cremonese

PPG 0.81 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Lazio

PPG 1.24 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.1%0-115.3%0-28.9%0-33.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-011.3%1-113.2%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.9%2-15.7%2-23.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.4%3-11.7%3-21.0%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.1% 34.2% 2.92 -26.7%

Draw 34.0% 32.3% 3.10 +5.4%

Away win 40.8% 40.3% 2.48 +1.2%

Over 2.5 33.3% 47.6% 2.10 -30.1%

Over 3.5 14.9% 26.3% 3.80 -43.4%

BTTS 41.9% 55.6% 1.80 -24.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 56%

ROI -36.2%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob41.9%

A 41% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 13.1%

#3 0–1 15.3%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cremonese0.9

Lazio1.2

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 14.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CREMONESE · PPG 0.81

LAZIO · PPG 1.24

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

42%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.81) vs Away AVERAGE (1.24)

Win probability 1X2

Cremonese (H) 25.1%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -26.7%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +5.4%

Lazio (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +1.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cremonese face Lazio in Italy - Serie A on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cremonese a 25% chance, the draw 34% and Lazio 41%, so Lazio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Cremonese and 1.2 for Lazio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cremonese are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 1.24 for Lazio. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Cremonese vs Lazio Prediction— Italy - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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