Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Prediction & Tips

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Portugal - Primeira Liga Regular Season - 32 Estádio José Alvalade· Lisbon Monday, May 4, 2026 19:15

Sporting CP PPG 2.33

5-1 MISS

Guimaraes PPG 0.93

Draw· +15.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 69.5%

Odds: 1.25 EV: -13.1%

Draw 20.0%

Odds: 5.75 EV: +15.0%

Away 10.5%

Odds: 10.00 EV: +5.0%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.9% Odds: 1.45 -11.7%

Over 3.5 38.5% Odds: 2.10 -19.1%

BTTS 52.1% Odds: 1.80 -6.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Sporting CP

2.32

Guimaraes

0.83

Model SuggestionHome -13.1% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -13.1% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+15.0%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus