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Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 19:15

Sporting CP

PPG 2.33 · HOME

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Guimaraes

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 69.5% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-13.6%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-010.0%1-18.3%1-23.4%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.5%2-19.6%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.9%3-17.4%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-17.4%4+-23.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.5% 80.0% 1.25 -13.1%

Draw 20.0% 17.4% 5.75 +15.0%

Away win 10.5% 10.0% 10.00 +5.0%

Over 2.5 60.9% 69.0% 1.45 -11.7%

Over 3.5 38.5% 47.6% 2.10 -19.1%

BTTS 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 47 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.1%

H 70% / xG 2.3-0.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.3%

#4 3–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sporting CP2.3

Guimaraes0.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.9% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTING CP · PPG 2.33

GUIMARAES · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.93) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sporting CP (H) 69.5%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -13.1%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +15.0%

Guimaraes (A) 10.5%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +5.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sporting CP face Guimaraes in Portugal - Primeira Liga on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sporting CP a 70% chance, the draw 20% and Guimaraes 11%, so Sporting CP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Sporting CP and 0.8 for Guimaraes (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sporting CP are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.93 for Guimaraes. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 5-1.

Sporting CP vs Guimaraes Prediction— Portugal - Primeira Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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