Today / Croatia - First NL / Dugopolje vs Cibalia

Dugopolje vs Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 29 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 13:45

Dugopolje

PPG 2.36 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Cibalia

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-110.2%0-25.5%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.0%1-113.1%1-27.1%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.3%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.3%3-13.6%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.9% 43.5% 2.30 -10.5%

Draw 31.7% 33.9% 2.95 -6.5%

Away win 29.4% 35.1% 2.85 -16.2%

Over 2.5 42.0% 43.5% 2.30 -3.4%

Over 3.5 21.3% 23.1% 4.33 -7.8%

BTTS 49.7% 51.3% 1.95 -3.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.7%

D 32% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1✓ 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dugopolje1.3

Cibalia1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DUGOPOLJE · PPG 2.36

CIBALIA · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=38.9%

Win probability 1X2

Dugopolje (H) 38.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -10.5%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -6.5%

Cibalia (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -16.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dugopolje face Cibalia in Croatia - First NL on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dugopolje a 39% chance, the draw 32% and Cibalia 29%, so Dugopolje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dugopolje and 1.1 for Cibalia (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dugopolje are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.15 for Cibalia. This match finished 2-1.

Dugopolje vs Cibalia Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions