Today / Jordan - League / Al Ahli vs Al Buqaa

Al Ahli vs Al Buqaa Prediction— Jordan - League

Regular Season - 26 ·Monday, May 4, 2026, 16:00

Al Ahli

PPG 0.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Buqaa

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+14.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.2%0-25.0%0-32.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-06.3%1-110.2%1-28.3%1-34.5%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.2%2-18.4%2-26.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.8%3-14.6%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 45.5% 2.20 -17.9%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

Away win 36.4% 35.7% 2.80 +1.9%

Over 2.5 63.2% 51.3% 1.95 +23.2%

Over 3.5 41.1% 30.8% 3.25 +33.6%

BTTS 66.2% 57.8% 1.73 +14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 20 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 34.6%

Bet Hit 81%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob66.2%

H 37% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1✓ 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–0 3.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli1.6

Al Buqaa1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI · PPG 0.33

AL BUQAA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -17.9%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -16.2%

Al Buqaa (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli face Al Buqaa in Jordan - League on Monday, May 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Al Buqaa 36%, so Al Ahli are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Al Ahli and 1.6 for Al Buqaa (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Al Buqaa. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Al Ahli vs Al Buqaa Prediction— Jordan - League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Jordan - League Predictions