05:00
H
29.6% -13.5%
D
33.6% -2.6%
A
36.9% +6.3%
No bet
O2.5 38.0% · BTTS 48.3%
Score
1–1
0–1
SkippedFootball predictions today · Tue 5 May
205 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 56% 1X2 48% Full record →
05:00
H
59.0%
D
24.3%
A
16.7%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–1
4–0
Hit07:30
H
35.5% -25.4%
D
32.1% +7.5%
A
32.5% +8.9%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–2
0–0
Miss07:30
H
37.6% -24.8%
D
32.8% +1.7%
A
29.6% +11.0%
No bet
O2.5 38.0% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
1–1
1–1
Skipped07:30
H
28.5% -13.8%
D
30.4% +0.3%
A
41.1% +4.8%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
1–2
1–2
Hit10:00
H
44.3% -23.4%
D
30.0% +5.0%
A
25.6% +13.7%
BTTS
+11.6%
O2.5 50.4% · BTTS 57.8%
Score
2–1
0–0
Miss
08:30
H
34.3% -22.8%
D
28.2% -1.6%
A
37.5% +3.1%
O2.5
+0.3%
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–2
2–0
Miss12:00
H
49.7% -30.4%
D
28.5% +11.8%
A
21.8% +26.3%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–1
2–0
Miss
11:00
H
37.5% -16.8%
D
32.8% +3.3%
A
29.7% -4.8%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–2
1–1
Hit11:35
H
34.3% -4.7%
D
28.2% +0.9%
A
37.5% -17.5%
O2.5
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–2
4–1
Hit12:00
H
46.8% +25.4%
D
31.4% -2.7%
A
21.8% -27.0%
No bet
O2.5 44.4% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
2–0
1–1
Skipped
11:30
H
21.8% +57.7%
D
23.3% +16.9%
A
54.9% -31.4%
O2.5
O2.5 60.5% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
1–3
1–2
Hit
12:00
H
35.7% +42.8%
D
31.7% +6.2%
A
32.6% -43.0%
BTTS
+7.1%
O2.5 50.5% · BTTS 57.9%
Score
2–2
2–0
Miss12:00
H
14.4% +24.2%
D
28.7% +19.2%
A
56.8% -27.3%
Away
O2.5 51.6% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
1–2
0–3
Hit
14:00
H
28.5% -12.1%
D
32.3% +0.1%
A
39.2% -7.9%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
1–2
1–2
Hit
14:05
H
28.6% +15.5%
D
32.0% +20.0%
A
39.4% -33.4%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
1–2
1–1
Hit16:45
H
46.3% -14.3%
D
28.3% -0.6%
A
25.4% -2.1%
BTTS
O2.5 51.6% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–1
2–2
Hit16:45
H
35.8% +37.8%
D
31.9% +5.3%
A
32.3% -38.6%
BTTS
O2.5 50.5% · BTTS 57.8%
Score
2–2
2–1
Hit16:45
H
37.5% -13.8%
D
29.6% +1.3%
A
32.9% -9.8%
O2.5
+2.1%
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–2
0–0
Miss
15:45
H
54.3% -24.0%
D
26.6% +3.8%
A
19.0% +19.8%
Home
O2.5 51.6% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–1
2–2
Miss
16:00
H
56.6% -29.3%
D
27.7% +14.8%
A
15.7% +43.6%
Home
O2.5 44.4% · BTTS 41.6%
Score
2–0
4–0
Hit16:00
H
35.5% -5.9%
D
32.1% -0.5%
A
32.5% -18.8%
BTTS
O2.5 50.0% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
2–2
0–2
Miss
16:00
H
45.1% -23.3%
D
30.3% -3.0%
A
24.6% +7.9%
No bet
O2.5 41.8% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
2–0
1–1
Skipped
16:00
H
38.9% -2.8%
D
30.6% +7.1%
A
30.5% -24.4%
BTTS
O2.5 57.4% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–2
3–1
Hit16:00
H
48.3% -36.2%
D
27.7% +20.6%
A
24.0% +53.8%
O2.5
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
3–1
3–2
Hit
17:00
H
45.0% -39.3%
D
30.2% +23.8%
A
24.7% +76.3%
No bet
O2.5 44.4% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
2–0
3–0
Skipped17:00
H
37.6% +74.8%
D
32.8% +6.6%
A
29.6% -28.7%
BTTS
+1.5%
O2.5 44.4% · BTTS 52.6%
Score
1–1
1–1
Hit17:00
H
30.4% +94.6%
D
34.6% +15.9%
A
35.0% -45.1%
No bet
O2.5 38.0% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
1–1
0–1
Skipped
17:00
H
14.9%
D
21.9%
A
63.2%
— no odds —
O3.5
O2.5 79.5% · BTTS 65.5%
Score
1–4
1–3
Hit17:00
H
48.9%
D
24.2%
A
26.9%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 79.5% · BTTS 65.5%
Score
3–2
1–2
Hit
17:30
H
32.0% -12.0%
D
29.2% +1.3%
A
38.8% -18.5%
O2.5
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
2–2
4–2
Hit17:30
H
35.5% +24.3%
D
32.1% -2.1%
A
32.5% -29.1%
No bet
O2.5 38.0% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
1–1
Pending
17:30
H
45.2% -13.2%
D
30.3% -9.1%
A
24.4% +7.3%
BTTS
+15.9%
O2.5 48.4% · BTTS 50.4%
Score
1–1
1–2
Hit17:30
H
35.8% -17.7%
D
39.1% +12.6%
A
25.1% -7.3%
No bet
O2.5 24.2% · BTTS 39.6%
Score
2–0
2–2
Skipped17:30
H
25.3% +55.4%
D
30.7% +10.5%
A
44.0% -33.1%
No bet
O2.5 44.4% · BTTS 49.5%
Score
0–2
0–2
Skipped
18:00
H
25.9% +107.8%
D
22.6% +21.4%
A
51.5% -37.2%
O2.5
O2.5 60.5% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
1–3
1–2
Hit—
H
26.7%
D
27.6%
A
45.7%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 59.0% · BTTS 58.5%
Score
1–2
Pending
—
H
14.4%
D
28.7%
A
56.8%
— no odds —
Away
O2.5 44.4% · BTTS 48.3%
Score
0–2
0–4
Hit—
H
54.3%
D
21.1%
A
24.6%
— no odds —
O2.5
O2.5 79.5% · BTTS 65.5%
Score
4–1
0–0
MissHow the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.