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Chongqing T. vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 12:00

Chongqing T.

PPG 2.20 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Henan SL

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-18.0%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.1%1-111.7%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.6%2-22.9%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.1%3-14.2%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 37.3% 2.68 +25.4%

Draw 31.4% 32.3% 3.10 -2.7%

Away win 21.8% 39.7% 2.52 -27.0%

Over 2.5 44.4% 48.8% 2.05 -9.0%

Over 3.5 17.0% 27.4% 3.65 -22.8%

BTTS 49.5% 57.1% 1.75 -13.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.5%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.1%

#2 1–1✓ 11.7%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Chongqing T.1.5

Henan SL0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CHONGQING T. · PPG 2.20

HENAN SL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=46.8%

Win probability 1X2

Chongqing T. (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV +25.4%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -2.7%

Henan SL (A) 21.8%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Chongqing T. face Henan SL in China - Super League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Chongqing T. a 47% chance, the draw 31% and Henan SL 22%, so Chongqing T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Chongqing T. and 0.7 for Henan SL (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Chongqing T. are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.00 for Henan SL. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Chongqing T. vs Henan SL Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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