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Kauno Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 15:45

Kauno Zalgiris

PPG 2.17 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Dziugas Telsiai

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.8%0-21.9%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.4%1-19.6%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.7%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.4%3-16.5%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-15.2%4+-22.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.3% 71.4% 1.40 -24.0%

Draw 26.6% 25.0% 4.00 +3.8%

Away win 19.0% 14.3% 7.00 +19.8%

Over 2.5 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Over 3.5 30.5% 33.3% 3.00 -8.5%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 41%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 12.4%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kauno Zalgiris2.0

Dziugas Telsiai0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KAUNO ZALGIRIS · PPG 2.17

DZIUGAS TELSIAI · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Kauno Zalgiris (H) 54.3%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -24.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +3.8%

Dziugas Telsiai (A) 19.0%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Zalgiris face Dziugas Telsiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Zalgiris a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Dziugas Telsiai 19%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.8 for Dziugas Telsiai (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Zalgiris are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Dziugas Telsiai. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Kauno Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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