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Kauno Zalgiris vs Dziugas Telsiai Prediction— Lithuania - A Lyga

Lithuania - A Lyga logo Lithuania flag Lithuania - A Lyga Regular Season - 12 Tuesday, May 5, 2026 15:45
Kauno Zalgiris logo Kauno Zalgiris PPG 2.17
2-2 MISS
Dziugas Telsiai logo Dziugas Telsiai PPG 2.00
Away· +19.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Kauno Zalgiris face Dziugas Telsiai in Lithuania - A Lyga on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kauno Zalgiris a 54% chance, the draw 27% and Dziugas Telsiai 19%, so Kauno Zalgiris are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kauno Zalgiris and 0.8 for Dziugas Telsiai (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kauno Zalgiris are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.00 for Dziugas Telsiai. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 54.3%
Odds: 1.40 EV: -24.0%
Draw 26.6%
Odds: 4.00 EV: +3.8%
Away 19.0%
Odds: 7.00 EV: +19.8%
Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.80 -7.1%
Over 3.5 30.5% Odds: 3.00 -8.5%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.95 +2.6%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-0
2nd 1-1
3rd 1-0
4th 2-1
5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Kauno Zalgiris
2.01
Dziugas Telsiai
0.78

Model Suggestion

Home -24.0% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -24.0% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Away (+19.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 31%
O2.5/Under 44%
BTTS/No 44%
Score Hit 31%
ROI -56.0%
Bet Hit 20% (5 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.17), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org