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Tanjong Pagar vs Hougang Prediction— Singapore - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 11:30

Tanjong Pagar

PPG 0.33 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hougang

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.2%0-27.6%0-36.2%0-4+6.7%1 1-03.1%1-17.6%1-29.3%1-37.6%1-4+8.3%2 2-01.9%2-14.7%2-25.7%2-34.7%2-4+5.1%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.4%3-31.9%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% 11.1% 9.00 +57.7%

Draw 23.3% 18.2% 5.50 +16.9%

Away win 54.9% 80.0% 1.25 -31.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 80.0% 1.25 -24.4%

Over 3.5 50.0% 59.9% 1.67 -16.5%

BTTS 58.5% 66.7% 1.50 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 70%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 12.6%

Bet Hit 90%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob58.5%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 1–3 7.6%

#4 0–2 7.6%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tanjong Pagar1.2

Hougang2.4

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TANJONG PAGAR · PPG 0.33

HOUGANG · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.67) vs Home POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Tanjong Pagar (H) 21.8%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +57.7%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +16.9%

Hougang (A) 54.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tanjong Pagar face Hougang in Singapore - Premier League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tanjong Pagar a 22% chance, the draw 23% and Hougang 55%, so Hougang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tanjong Pagar and 2.4 for Hougang (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tanjong Pagar are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.67 for Hougang. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +57.7%. This match finished 1-2.

Tanjong Pagar vs Hougang Prediction— Singapore - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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