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Ajman vs Al Jazira Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 24 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 14:05

Ajman

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Jazira

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-112.0%0-28.9%0-34.4%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.4%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.3%2-16.4%2-24.7%2-32.3%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.6%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 22.7% 4.40 +15.5%

Draw 32.0% 26.7% 3.75 +20.0%

Away win 39.4% 59.2% 1.69 -33.4%

Over 2.5 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%

Over 3.5 24.5% 36.4% 2.75 -19.6%

BTTS 52.6% 60.6% 1.65 -13.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 39% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 0–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 8.1%

#4 1–2 9.2%

#5 0–2 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ajman1.0

Al Jazira1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.5%

Form & verdict PPG

AJMAN · PPG 1.00

AL JAZIRA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

58%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ajman (H) 28.6%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +15.5%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +20.0%

Al Jazira (A) 39.4%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -33.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ajman face Al Jazira in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ajman a 29% chance, the draw 32% and Al Jazira 39%, so Al Jazira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Ajman and 1.5 for Al Jazira (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ajman are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Al Jazira. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Ajman vs Al Jazira Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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