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Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 07:30

Daejeon Citizen

PPG 0.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLW

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Incheon Utd

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-111.5%0-27.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.6%1-113.1%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-17.4%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.3%3-12.8%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 47.6% 2.10 -25.4%

Draw 32.1% 29.9% 3.35 +7.5%

Away win 32.5% 29.9% 3.35 +8.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 21.6% 28.6% 3.50 -14.6%

BTTS 52.6% 57.1% 1.75 -8.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

D 32% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0✓ 9.3%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daejeon Citizen1.1

Incheon Utd1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 21.6%

Form & verdict PPG

DAEJEON CITIZEN · PPG 0.40

INCHEON UTD · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Daejeon Citizen (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.4%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +7.5%

Incheon Utd (A) 32.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daejeon Citizen face Incheon Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daejeon Citizen a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Incheon Utd 33%, so Daejeon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Daejeon Citizen and 1.2 for Incheon Utd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daejeon Citizen are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Incheon Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Daejeon Citizen vs Incheon Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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