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Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 24 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:45

Ittihad Kalba

PPG 0.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Khorfakkan

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-17.2%0-25.6%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.0%1-110.9%1-28.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.3%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.2%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.5% 43.5% 2.30 -13.8%

Draw 29.6% 29.0% 3.45 +1.3%

Away win 32.9% 36.5% 2.74 -9.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Over 3.5 37.0% 36.4% 2.75 +1.8%

BTTS 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 30% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–0✓ 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ittihad Kalba1.5

Khorfakkan1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 37.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ITTIHAD KALBA · PPG 0.75

KHORFAKKAN · PPG 1.27

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.27) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Ittihad Kalba (H) 37.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -13.8%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.3%

Khorfakkan (A) 32.9%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ittihad Kalba face Khorfakkan in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ittihad Kalba a 38% chance, the draw 30% and Khorfakkan 33%, so Ittihad Kalba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Ittihad Kalba and 1.6 for Khorfakkan (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ittihad Kalba are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.27 for Khorfakkan. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.1%. This match finished 0-0.

Ittihad Kalba vs Khorfakkan Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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