Shandong T. vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

China - Super League Regular Season - 10 Jinan Olympic Sports Center· Jinan Tuesday, May 5, 2026 11:35

Shandong T. PPG 1.60

4-1 MISS

S. Shenhua PPG 2.00

Draw· +0.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 34% chance, the draw 28% and S. Shenhua 38%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Shandong T. and 1.7 for S. Shenhua (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.3%

Odds: 2.78 EV: -4.7%

Draw 28.2%

Odds: 3.60 EV: +0.9%

Away 37.5%

Odds: 2.20 EV: -17.5%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.45 -14.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% Odds: 2.15 -17.9%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.38 -19.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 0-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Shandong T.

1.45

S. Shenhua

1.68

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -14.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -14.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Draw (+0.9%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5/Under 56%

BTTS/No 65%

Score Hit 23%

ROI -11.2%

Bet Hit 50% (14 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)