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Shandong T. vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 10 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 11:35

Shandong T.

PPG 1.60 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

S. Shenhua

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-17.3%0-26.1%0-33.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.3%1-110.6%1-28.9%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.7%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.7%3-23.1%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 36.0% 2.78 -4.7%

Draw 28.2% 27.8% 3.60 +0.9%

Away win 37.5% 45.5% 2.20 -17.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 69.0% 1.45 -14.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% 46.5% 2.15 -17.9%

BTTS 58.5% 72.5% 1.38 -19.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T.1.5

S. Shenhua1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. · PPG 1.60

S. SHENHUA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.60) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -4.7%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.9%

S. Shenhua (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. face S. Shenhua in China - Super League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. a 34% chance, the draw 28% and S. Shenhua 38%, so S. Shenhua are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Shandong T. and 1.7 for S. Shenhua (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.00 for S. Shenhua. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Shandong T. vs S. Shenhua Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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