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Sahdag vs Mingachevir Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 25 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 12:00

Sahdag

PPG 1.73 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Mingachevir

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-110.2%0-27.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.8%1-112.4%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-17.6%2-25.3%2-32.5%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 25.0% 4.00 +42.8%

Draw 31.7% 29.9% 3.35 +6.2%

Away win 32.6% 57.1% 1.75 -43.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 52.6% 1.90 -4.0%

Over 3.5 27.0% 30.5% 3.28 -6.9%

BTTS 57.9% 54.1% 1.85 +7.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.9%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–0 7.2%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sahdag1.2

Mingachevir1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAHDAG · PPG 1.73

MINGACHEVIR · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Sahdag (H) 35.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +42.8%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +6.2%

Mingachevir (A) 32.6%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -43.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sahdag face Mingachevir in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sahdag a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Mingachevir 33%, so Sahdag are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sahdag and 1.4 for Mingachevir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sahdag are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.83 for Mingachevir. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +42.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Sahdag vs Mingachevir Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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