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Madura Utd vs Bali Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Matchday 31 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 08:30

Madura Utd

PPG 0.87 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Bali Utd

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-18.0%0-26.6%0-33.6%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.7%1-111.0%1-29.1%1-35.0%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.6%2-17.6%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.1%3-13.5%3-22.9%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.3% 44.4% 2.25 -22.8%

Draw 28.2% 29.0% 3.45 -1.6%

Away win 37.5% 36.4% 2.75 +3.1%

Over 2.5 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 35.8% 36.4% 2.75 -1.6%

BTTS 58.5% 64.5% 1.55 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -40.1%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 28% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1 7.6%

#4 0–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Madura Utd1.4

Bali Utd1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 35.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MADURA UTD · PPG 0.87

BALI UTD · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

59%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Madura Utd (H) 34.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.8%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.6%

Bali Utd (A) 37.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +3.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Madura Utd face Bali Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madura Utd a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Bali Utd 38%, so Bali Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Madura Utd and 1.6 for Bali Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madura Utd are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.60 for Bali Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Madura Utd vs Bali Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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