Madura Utd vs Bali Utd Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Indonesia - Liga 1 Regular Season - 31 Gelora Ratu Pamelingan Stadium· Pamekasan Tuesday, May 5, 2026 08:30

Madura Utd PPG 0.87

2-0 MISS

Bali Utd PPG 1.60

Away· +3.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Madura Utd face Bali Utd in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madura Utd a 34% chance, the draw 28% and Bali Utd 38%, so Bali Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Madura Utd and 1.6 for Bali Utd (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madura Utd are averaging 0.87 points per game versus 1.60 for Bali Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 34.3%

Odds: 2.25 EV: -22.8%

Draw 28.2%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -1.6%

Away 37.5%

Odds: 2.75 EV: +3.1%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 59.0% Odds: 1.70 +0.3%

Over 3.5 35.8% Odds: 2.75 -1.6%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.55 -9.3%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 0-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Madura Utd

1.38

Bali Utd

1.65

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +0.3% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+3.1%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.87)