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Karvan vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Regular Season - 30 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 12:00

Karvan

PPG 0.53 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Neftci

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-112.2%0-211.7%0-37.6%0-4+5.7%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.8%1-36.3%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.2%2-14.2%2-24.1%2-32.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% 10.3% 9.75 +24.2%

Draw 28.7% 21.7% 4.60 +19.2%

Away win 56.8% 78.1% 1.28 -27.3%

Over 2.5 51.6% 60.6% 1.65 -14.9%

Over 3.5 30.0% 38.5% 2.60 -22.0%

BTTS 52.6% 51.3% 1.95 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 23.6%

Bet Hit 74%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.6%

A 57% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.7%

#2 1–1 10.1%

#3 0–1 12.2%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karvan0.8

Neftci1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KARVAN · PPG 0.53

NEFTCI · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.53)

Win probability 1X2

Karvan (H) 14.4%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +24.2%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +19.2%

Neftci (A) 56.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -27.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karvan face Neftci in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karvan a 14% chance, the draw 29% and Neftci 57%, so Neftci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Karvan and 1.9 for Neftci (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karvan are averaging 0.53 points per game versus 1.86 for Neftci. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 0-3.

Karvan vs Neftci Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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