← Back to picks 
Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Tuesday, May 5, 2026 12:00 
Karvan PPG 0.53 
Neftci PPG 1.86
Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa Tuesday, May 5, 2026 12:00 Karvan PPG 0.530-3 MISS
Neftci PPG 1.86Home· +24.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum
63% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✔
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 51.6% Odds: 1.65 -14.9%
Over 3.5 30.0% Odds: 2.60 -22.0%
BTTS 52.6% Odds: 1.95 +2.6%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 0-2 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 0-1 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 0-0 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Karvan 0.83
Neftci 1.93
Model Suggestion
Away -27.3% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -27.3% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+24.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+24.2%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 32 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 56%
O2.5/Under 53%
BTTS/No 66%
Score Hit 69%
ROI 23.6%
Bet Hit 57% (7 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum
UPSET_VALUE 63%
Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.53)