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Al Ahly vs ENPPI Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group · Matchday 6 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 17:00

Al Ahly

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

ENPPI

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-19.8%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.1%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.4%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.7%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 74.1% 1.35 -39.3%

Draw 30.2% 24.4% 4.10 +23.8%

Away win 24.7% 10.9% 9.20 +76.3%

Over 2.5 44.4% 51.3% 1.95 -13.4%

Over 3.5 17.3% 29.4% 3.40 -24.7%

BTTS 49.5% 45.5% 2.20 +8.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -0.5%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 15.1%

#4 2–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahly1.3

ENPPI0.9

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLY · PPG 2.36

ENPPI · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.36) vs P(Home)=45.0%

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahly (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -39.3%

Draw 30.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +23.8%

ENPPI (A) 24.7%

ODDS 9.20 · IMPLIED 10.9% EV +76.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahly face ENPPI in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahly a 45% chance, the draw 30% and ENPPI 25%, so Al Ahly are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Ahly and 0.9 for ENPPI (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahly are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.21 for ENPPI. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +76.3%. This match finished 3-0.

Al Ahly vs ENPPI Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions