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Borneo vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Regular Season - 31 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 12:00

Borneo

PPG 2.67 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Persita

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-16.1%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.9%1-110.8%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.5%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.2%3-15.6%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 71.4% 1.40 -30.4%

Draw 28.5% 23.8% 4.20 +11.8%

Away win 21.8% 15.2% 6.60 +26.3%

Over 2.5 50.0% 61.7% 1.62 -19.0%

Over 3.5 25.1% 40.0% 2.50 -22.4%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -13.1%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–0 13.9%

#3 2–0✓ 12.3%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Borneo1.8

Persita0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BORNEO · PPG 2.67

PERSITA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.67) vs P(Home)=49.7%

Win probability 1X2

Borneo (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -30.4%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.8%

Persita (A) 21.8%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +26.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Borneo face Persita in Indonesia - Liga 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Borneo a 50% chance, the draw 28% and Persita 22%, so Borneo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Borneo and 0.8 for Persita (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Borneo are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.20 for Persita. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +26.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Borneo vs Persita Prediction— Indonesia - Liga 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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