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Mumbai City vs East Bengal Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 14:00

Mumbai City

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

East Bengal

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-112.4%0-28.8%0-34.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.5%2-16.4%2-24.5%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.5%3-12.2%3-21.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

Draw 32.3% 32.3% 3.10 +0.1%

Away win 39.2% 42.6% 2.35 -7.9%

Over 2.5 50.0% 51.3% 1.95 -2.5%

Over 3.5 22.7% 29.9% 3.35 -14.4%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 17%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.6%

A 39% / xG 1.0-1.4 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–0 8.8%

#3 0–1 12.4%

#4 1–2✓ 8.9%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mumbai City1.0

East Bengal1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MUMBAI CITY · PPG 2.00

EAST BENGAL · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Mumbai City (H) 28.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -12.1%

Draw 32.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.1%

East Bengal (A) 39.2%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mumbai City face East Bengal in India - Indian Super League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mumbai City a 28% chance, the draw 32% and East Bengal 39%, so East Bengal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mumbai City and 1.4 for East Bengal (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mumbai City are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 3.00 for East Bengal. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Mumbai City vs East Bengal Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions