Today / Egypt - Premier League / Smouha vs Zamalek

Smouha vs Zamalek Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Championship Group - 6 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 17:00

Smouha

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Zamalek

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-116.4%0-28.7%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.4%1-113.2%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.0%2-15.3%2-22.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.3%3-11.4%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 15.6% 6.40 +94.6%

Draw 34.6% 29.9% 3.35 +15.9%

Away win 35.0% 63.7% 1.57 -45.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.8% 2.45 -6.9%

Over 3.5 12.1% 21.1% 4.75 -25.5%

BTTS 49.5% 42.6% 2.35 +16.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -23.4%

Bet Hit 36%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.5%

D 35% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–1✓ 16.4%

#4 1–0 12.4%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Smouha0.8

Zamalek1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SMOUHA · PPG 1.38

ZAMALEK · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Smouha (H) 30.4%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +94.6%

Draw 34.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +15.9%

Zamalek (A) 35.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -45.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Smouha face Zamalek in Egypt - Premier League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Smouha a 30% chance, the draw 35% and Zamalek 35%, so Zamalek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Smouha and 1.1 for Zamalek (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Smouha are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.00 for Zamalek. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +94.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Smouha vs Zamalek Prediction— Egypt - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Egypt - Premier League Predictions