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Zilina vs Z. Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Championship Group - 8 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:00

Zilina

PPG 1.93 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Z. Michalovce

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.4%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.3%1-25.0%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.5%3-17.0%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.1%4+-23.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.3% 75.8% 1.32 -36.2%

Draw 27.7% 20.6% 4.85 +20.6%

Away win 24.0% 12.7% 7.90 +53.8%

Over 2.5 59.0% 70.4% 1.42 -16.2%

Over 3.5 39.7% 48.8% 2.05 -18.6%

BTTS 58.5% 62.5% 1.60 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 31%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.5%

H 48% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zilina2.1

Z. Michalovce1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ZILINA · PPG 1.93

Z. MICHALOVCE · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.93) > Away AVERAGE (1.29)

Win probability 1X2

Zilina (H) 48.3%

ODDS 1.32 · IMPLIED 75.8% EV -36.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.85 · IMPLIED 20.6% EV +20.6%

Z. Michalovce (A) 24.0%

ODDS 7.90 · IMPLIED 12.7% EV +53.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zilina face Z. Michalovce in Slovakia - Super Liga on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zilina a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Z. Michalovce 24%, so Zilina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Zilina and 1.1 for Z. Michalovce (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zilina are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.29 for Z. Michalovce. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +53.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Zilina vs Z. Michalovce Prediction— Slovakia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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