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Stellenbosch vs Orlando Pirates Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 27 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 17:30

Stellenbosch

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Orlando Pirates

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.4%0-117.3%0-212.0%0-35.6%0-4+2.6%1 1-08.6%1-112.0%1-28.4%1-33.9%1-4+1.8%2 2-03.0%2-14.2%2-22.9%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.7%3-11.0%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.3% 13.2% 7.60 +55.4%

Draw 30.7% 27.8% 3.60 +10.5%

Away win 44.0% 65.8% 1.52 -33.1%

Over 2.5 44.4% 41.7% 2.40 +6.6%

Over 3.5 15.9% 21.1% 4.75 -14.7%

BTTS 49.5% 42.0% 2.38 +17.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.5%

A 44% / xG 0.7-1.4 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.3%

#2 0–0 12.4%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–2✓ 12.0%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stellenbosch0.7

Orlando Pirates1.4

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 15.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STELLENBOSCH · PPG 1.38

ORLANDO PIRATES · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Stellenbosch (H) 25.3%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +55.4%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +10.5%

Orlando Pirates (A) 44.0%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -33.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stellenbosch face Orlando Pirates in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stellenbosch a 25% chance, the draw 31% and Orlando Pirates 44%, so Orlando Pirates are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Stellenbosch and 1.4 for Orlando Pirates (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stellenbosch are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 2.25 for Orlando Pirates. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +55.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Stellenbosch vs Orlando Pirates Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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