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Bani Yas vs Al Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 24 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:45

Bani Yas

PPG 0.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Dhafra

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 58.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-17.3%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.7%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.4%3-15.1%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Draw 28.3% 28.6% 3.50 -0.6%

Away win 25.4% 26.3% 3.80 -2.1%

Over 2.5 51.6% 55.6% 1.80 -7.1%

Over 3.5 30.0% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

BTTS 58.5% 59.9% 1.67 -2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob58.5%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bani Yas1.6

Al Dhafra1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BANI YAS · PPG 0.82

AL DHAFRA · PPG 0.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.82), Away POOR (0.55)

Win probability 1X2

Bani Yas (H) 46.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -0.6%

Al Dhafra (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bani Yas face Al Dhafra in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bani Yas a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Al Dhafra 25%, so Bani Yas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bani Yas and 1.2 for Al Dhafra (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bani Yas are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 0.55 for Al Dhafra. This match finished 2-2.

Bani Yas vs Al Dhafra Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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