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Bucheon FC vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Regular Season - 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 05:00

Bucheon FC

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Jeju Utd

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-118.1%0-29.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-112.8%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-04.4%2-14.5%2-22.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.6% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

Draw 33.6% 34.5% 2.90 -2.6%

Away win 36.9% 34.7% 2.88 +6.3%

Over 2.5 38.0% 35.7% 2.80 +6.4%

Over 3.5 9.9% 17.4% 5.75 -25.9%

BTTS 48.3% 46.5% 2.15 +3.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -30.7%

Bet Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.3%

D 34% / xG 0.7-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.6%

#2 0–1✓ 18.1%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bucheon FC0.7

Jeju Utd1.0

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHEON FC · PPG 0.60

JEJU UTD · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Bucheon FC (H) 29.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.5%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -2.6%

Jeju Utd (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +6.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bucheon FC face Jeju Utd in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bucheon FC a 30% chance, the draw 34% and Jeju Utd 37%, so Jeju Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Bucheon FC and 1.0 for Jeju Utd (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bucheon FC are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.40 for Jeju Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Bucheon FC vs Jeju Utd Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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