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Gangwon vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 07:30

Gangwon

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.1%0-114.0%0-26.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.4%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.4%2-16.4%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.0%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 50.0% 2.00 -24.8%

Draw 32.8% 32.3% 3.10 +1.7%

Away win 29.6% 25.0% 4.00 +11.0%

Over 2.5 38.0% 42.0% 2.38 -9.6%

Over 3.5 11.3% 22.2% 4.50 -29.5%

BTTS 49.5% 50.0% 2.00 -1.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.5%

D 33% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.1%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 1–0 15.4%

#4 0–1 14.0%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gangwon1.0

Pohang Steelers0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GANGWON · PPG 1.20

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

50%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Gangwon (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -24.8%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +1.7%

Pohang Steelers (A) 29.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gangwon face Pohang Steelers in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gangwon a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Pohang Steelers 30%, so Gangwon are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gangwon and 0.9 for Pohang Steelers (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gangwon are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.33 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +11.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Gangwon vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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