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Al Riffa vs Al Shabbab Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:00

Al Riffa

PPG 1.89 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Shabbab

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-15.4%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.4%1-19.2%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.2%3-14.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-12.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 80.0% 1.25 -29.3%

Draw 27.7% 22.2% 4.50 +14.8%

Away win 15.7% 9.1% 11.00 +43.6%

Over 2.5 44.4% 55.6% 1.80 -20.1%

Over 3.5 17.4% 33.9% 2.95 -29.2%

BTTS 41.6% 44.4% 2.25 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.6%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 2–0 16.4%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riffa1.7

Al Shabbab0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIFFA · PPG 1.89

AL SHABBAB · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Al Riffa (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -29.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +14.8%

Al Shabbab (A) 15.7%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +43.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riffa face Al Shabbab in Bahrain - Premier League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riffa a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Al Shabbab 16%, so Al Riffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Riffa and 0.5 for Al Shabbab (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riffa are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Al Shabbab. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +43.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Riffa vs Al Shabbab Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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