Today / Bahrain - Premier League / Al Riffa vs Al Shabbab

Al Riffa vs Al Shabbab Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:00

Al Riffa

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Al Shabbab

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

// Model verdict

Home 73% chance

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.5%0-15.4%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.4%1-19.2%1-22.2%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.4%2-17.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.2%3-14.4%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-12.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 80.0% 1.25 -29.3%

Draw 27.7% 22.2% 4.50 +14.8%

Away win 15.7% 9.1% 11.00 +43.6%

Over 2.5 44.4% 55.6% 1.80 -20.1%

Over 3.5 17.4% 33.9% 2.95 -29.2%

BTTS 41.6% 44.4% 2.25 -6.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 32.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob41.6%

H 57% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.4%

#2 2–0 16.4%

#3 0–0 11.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riffa1.7

Al Shabbab0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 17.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIFFA · PPG 1.89

AL SHABBAB · PPG 0.89

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

73%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.89) vs P(Home)=56.6%

Win probability 1X2

Al Riffa (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -29.3%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +14.8%

Al Shabbab (A) 15.7%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +43.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riffa face Al Shabbab in Bahrain - Premier League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riffa a 57% chance, the draw 28% and Al Shabbab 16%, so Al Riffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Al Riffa and 0.5 for Al Shabbab (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riffa are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.89 for Al Shabbab. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +43.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Al Riffa vs Al Shabbab Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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