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Sitra vs Al Ahli M. Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 20 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:00

Sitra

PPG 1.11 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al Ahli M.

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-111.1%0-27.1%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.1%1-112.9%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-17.5%2-24.8%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.3%3-12.9%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 37.7% 2.65 -5.9%

Draw 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

Away win 32.5% 40.0% 2.50 -18.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Over 3.5 23.1% 26.7% 3.75 -8.0%

BTTS 52.6% 55.6% 1.80 -5.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.6%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sitra1.2

Al Ahli M.1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SITRA · PPG 1.11

AL AHLI M. · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.11) vs Away AVERAGE (1.44)

Win probability 1X2

Sitra (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -5.9%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -0.5%

Al Ahli M. (A) 32.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -18.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sitra face Al Ahli M. in Bahrain - Premier League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sitra a 36% chance, the draw 32% and Al Ahli M. 33%, so Sitra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sitra and 1.3 for Al Ahli M. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sitra are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.44 for Al Ahli M.. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Sitra vs Al Ahli M. Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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