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Siwelele vs Durban City Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Regular Season - 27 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 17:30

Siwelele

PPG 1.77 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Durban City

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-026.1%0-113.9%0-23.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.1%1-111.3%1-23.0%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.5%2-14.6%2-21.2%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.3%3-11.2%3-20.3%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 43.5% 2.30 -17.7%

Draw 39.1% 34.7% 2.88 +12.6%

Away win 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Over 2.5 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.0%

Over 3.5 4.8% 15.4% 6.50 -41.3%

BTTS 39.6% 42.0% 2.38 -5.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 65%

ROI -23.2%

Bet Hit 47%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.6%

H 36% / xG 0.8-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 26.1%

#2 1–0 21.1%

#3 1–1 11.3%

#4 0–1 13.9%

#5 2–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Siwelele0.8

Durban City0.5

COMBINED 1.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 24.2% · O3.5 PROB 4.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SIWELELE · PPG 1.77

DURBAN CITY · PPG 0.92

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.77) vs P(Home)=35.8%

Win probability 1X2

Siwelele (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.7%

Draw 39.1%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +12.6%

Durban City (A) 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Siwelele face Durban City in South-Africa - Premier Soccer League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Siwelele a 36% chance, the draw 39% and Durban City 25%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.8 for Siwelele and 0.5 for Durban City (1.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Siwelele are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.92 for Durban City. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +12.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Siwelele vs Durban City Prediction— South-Africa - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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