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Gimcheon Sangmu vs Ulsan Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Matchday 12 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 07:30

Gimcheon Sangmu

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ulsan

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-112.3%0-29.5%0-34.8%0-4+2.6%1 1-07.9%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-03.9%2-16.0%2-24.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.3%3-12.0%3-21.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.5% 37.0% 2.70 -13.8%

Draw 30.4% 30.3% 3.30 +0.3%

Away win 41.1% 39.2% 2.55 +4.8%

Over 2.5 50.0% 50.0% 2.00 0.0%

Over 3.5 24.7% 29.0% 3.45 -8.9%

BTTS 52.6% 57.8% 1.73 -9.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -64.7%

Bet Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 8.0%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 1–2✓ 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimcheon Sangmu1.0

Ulsan1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 24.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMCHEON SANGMU · PPG 0.80

ULSAN · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

56%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Gimcheon Sangmu (H) 28.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -13.8%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +0.3%

Ulsan (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimcheon Sangmu face Ulsan in South-Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimcheon Sangmu a 28% chance, the draw 30% and Ulsan 41%, so Ulsan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Gimcheon Sangmu and 1.5 for Ulsan (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimcheon Sangmu are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.00 for Ulsan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Gimcheon Sangmu vs Ulsan Prediction— South-Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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