Today / Georgia - Erovnuli Liga / Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Regular Season - 11 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 16:00

Torpedo Kutaisi

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Rustavi

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.4%0-110.2%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.8%1-112.7%1-24.8%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.4%3-13.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 58.8% 1.70 -23.3%

Draw 30.3% 31.3% 3.20 -3.0%

Away win 24.6% 21.7% 4.60 +7.9%

Over 2.5 41.8% 47.6% 2.10 -12.2%

Over 3.5 14.5% 27.2% 3.68 -28.0%

BTTS 49.5% 48.8% 2.05 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 6.7%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.5%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.4%

#2 1–0 16.8%

#3 1–1✓ 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Torpedo Kutaisi1.3

Rustavi0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 14.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TORPEDO KUTAISI · PPG 2.00

RUSTAVI · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Torpedo Kutaisi (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -23.3%

Draw 30.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -3.0%

Rustavi (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Torpedo Kutaisi face Rustavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Torpedo Kutaisi a 45% chance, the draw 30% and Rustavi 25%, so Torpedo Kutaisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Torpedo Kutaisi and 0.8 for Rustavi (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Torpedo Kutaisi are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Rustavi. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Torpedo Kutaisi vs Rustavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Georgia - Erovnuli Liga Predictions