Al Khaleej vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Saudi-Arabia - Pro League Regular Season - 28 Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium· Dammam Tuesday, May 5, 2026 18:00

Al Khaleej PPG 1.43

1-2 HIT MostLikelyScore

Al Hilal PPG 2.43

Home· +107.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej face Al Hilal in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Al Hilal 52%, so Al Hilal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Khaleej and 2.3 for Al Hilal (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.43 for Al Hilal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +107.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.9%

Odds: 10.80 EV: +107.8%

Draw 22.6%

Odds: 6.00 EV: +21.4%

Away 51.5%

Odds: 1.22 EV: -37.2%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 60.5% Odds: 1.33 -19.5%

Over 3.5 49.3% Odds: 1.83 -9.8%

BTTS 58.5% Odds: 1.62 -5.2%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✔

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 1-3 ✘

4th 0-2 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Al Khaleej

1.29

Al Hilal

2.34

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -19.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -19.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+107.8%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)