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Al Khaleej vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Matchday 28 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 18:00

Al Khaleej

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Al Hilal

PPG 2.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-16.2%0-27.2%0-35.7%0-4+5.8%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.4%1-37.3%1-4+7.4%2 2-02.2%2-15.2%2-26.0%2-34.7%2-4+4.8%3 3-00.9%3-12.2%3-22.6%3-32.0%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-11.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 9.3% 10.80 +107.8%

Draw 22.6% 16.7% 6.00 +21.4%

Away win 51.5% 82.0% 1.22 -37.2%

Over 2.5 60.5% 75.2% 1.33 -19.5%

Over 3.5 49.3% 54.6% 1.83 -9.8%

BTTS 58.5% 61.7% 1.62 -5.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob58.5%

A 52% / xG 1.3-2.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 9.4%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 0–2 7.2%

#5 2–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Khaleej1.3

Al Hilal2.3

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 49.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AL KHALEEJ · PPG 1.43

AL HILAL · PPG 2.43

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

71%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.43) vs Home AVERAGE (1.43)

Win probability 1X2

Al Khaleej (H) 25.9%

ODDS 10.80 · IMPLIED 9.3% EV +107.8%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +21.4%

Al Hilal (A) 51.5%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -37.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Khaleej face Al Hilal in Saudi-Arabia - Pro League on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Khaleej a 26% chance, the draw 23% and Al Hilal 52%, so Al Hilal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Al Khaleej and 2.3 for Al Hilal (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Khaleej are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.43 for Al Hilal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +107.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Al Khaleej vs Al Hilal Prediction— Saudi-Arabia - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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