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Wiener SC vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 25 ·Tuesday, May 5, 2026, 17:30

Wiener SC

PPG 1.30 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Parndorf

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-19.1%0-27.5%0-34.1%0-4+2.4%1 1-06.9%1-111.3%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.1%2-25.9%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.8%3-13.0%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.2%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 36.4% 2.75 -12.0%

Draw 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +1.3%

Away win 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

Over 2.5 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Over 3.5 33.1% 42.6% 2.35 -22.2%

BTTS 58.5% 68.0% 1.47 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob58.5%

D 29% / xG 1.3-1.6 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–2 7.5%

#4 0–1 9.1%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wiener SC1.3

Parndorf1.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.0% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WIENER SC · PPG 1.30

PARNDORF · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.30) vs Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Wiener SC (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.0%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.3%

Parndorf (A) 38.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -18.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wiener SC face Parndorf in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wiener SC a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Parndorf 39%, so Parndorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wiener SC and 1.6 for Parndorf (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wiener SC are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.67 for Parndorf. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 4-2.

Wiener SC vs Parndorf Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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