12:00
H
35.7% -5.4%
D
24.4% -21.9%
A
39.9% -4.2%
BTTS
+1.5%
O2.5 56.9% · BTTS 59.7%
Score
1–2
1–1
HitFootball predictions today · Thu 16 Apr
205 graded O2.5 59% BTTS 57% 1X2 47% Full record →
12:00
H
31.6% +36.8%
D
26.2% -10.9%
A
42.1% -29.3%
BTTS
O2.5 48.1% · BTTS 52.5%
Score
1–2
0–0
Miss12:00
H
87.2% +9.0%
D
8.6% -57.0%
A
4.1% -68.0%
Home
+9.0%
O2.5 77.0% · BTTS 47.6%
Score
4–1
2–1
Hit13:00
H
86.8% +1.6%
D
9.4% -46.0%
A
3.8% -58.2%
Home
+1.6%
O2.5 70.1% · BTTS 39.9%
Score
4–0
4–0
Hit
14:00
H
48.1% -8.1%
D
22.9% -23.3%
A
28.9% +2.6%
BTTS
+5.7%
O2.5 61.5% · BTTS 62.2%
Score
3–1
0–0
Miss16:30
H
16.5% -36.5%
D
22.8% -24.8%
A
60.8% +12.5%
Away
+12.5%
O2.5 48.0% · BTTS 46.0%
Score
0–3
0–0
Miss
14:00
H
65.0% +5.3%
D
18.7% -31.8%
A
16.3% -21.8%
O2.5
+18.4%
O2.5 65.8% · BTTS 59.4%
Score
3–1
3–3
Hit
15:00
H
44.8% +9.8%
D
19.8% -36.6%
A
35.3% -6.5%
O2.5
+60.4%
O2.5 80.2% · BTTS 77.8%
Score
3–2
1–2
Hit
15:00
H
58.7% +47.9%
D
22.8% -23.6%
A
18.5% -53.4%
Home
+47.9%
O2.5 51.0% · BTTS 49.8%
Score
3–0
2–1
Hit
16:00
H
6.2% -65.9%
D
14.3% -43.5%
A
79.5% +19.3%
Away
+19.3%
O2.5 57.1% · BTTS 37.8%
Score
0–3
0–1
Hit16:00
H
47.5% -2.6%
D
20.6% -34.1%
A
31.9% +5.3%
O2.5
+49.4%
O2.5 74.7% · BTTS 73.0%
Score
3–1
1–2
Hit
18:30
H
29.4% -32.4%
D
39.5% +10.6%
A
31.1% +2.6%
No bet
O2.5 15.0% · BTTS 23.6%
Score
1–1
1–2
Skipped18:30
H
34.0% -10.9%
D
21.0% -42.3%
A
45.0% +26.0%
O2.5
+128.2%
O2.5 73.6% · BTTS 72.4%
Score
1–3
1–1
Miss
18:45
H
73.3% +15.1%
D
16.3% -31.5%
A
10.4% -47.0%
Home
+15.1%
O2.5 62.5% · BTTS 50.1%
Score
3–1
1–3
Miss19:00
H
42.5% +31.8%
D
27.3% -15.4%
A
30.2% -29.0%
No bet
O2.5 43.3% · BTTS 48.5%
Score
2–0
0–0
Skipped
23:00
H
46.1% -3.2%
D
23.0% -28.7%
A
30.9% +3.5%
BTTS
+23.1%
O2.5 62.1% · BTTS 63.1%
Score
3–1
2–2
Hit—
H
92.1%
D
6.7%
A
1.3%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 64.4% · BTTS 19.4%
Score
4–0
1–0
Hit—
H
75.8%
D
17.4%
A
6.8%
— no odds —
Home
O2.5 46.3% · BTTS 31.7%
Score
3–0
1–0
HitHow the model calls it
01 · Strength
Attack and defence ratings per team from recent form, weighted by opposition — the inputs behind expected goals.
02 · Poisson
Goal expectancies become a full scoreline matrix: win, draw, Over 2.5, BTTS and top correct scores from one distribution.
03 · Edge
Model probability vs live bookmaker odds. A positive gap is value, flagged on every outcome as +EV%. No edge, no bet.
Questions, answered straight
How accurate are these football predictions?
Every pick is graded automatically at full time and kept on the public record. The full history, including losing days, is on the Accuracy page.
What is a value bet?
A bet where the model's probability is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker's odds. If the model says 49% and the odds imply 34%, that gap is the edge — shown as +EV% next to each outcome. Value bets can still lose; the point is being paid more than the risk is worth over hundreds of bets.
How does a Poisson model predict matches?
It estimates how many goals each team is expected to score from attack and defence strength, then computes the probability of every scoreline. Summing those scorelines gives win/draw/loss, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities from a single consistent model.
Are the predictions free?
Yes — every match, every league, every day.
Why does the model say "No bet" on some matches?
When no outcome clears the confidence threshold, the model passes. Skipping bad spots is part of how the hit rate stays honest — a tip site that picks every match is selling volume, not edge.