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East Bengal vs Bengaluru Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Regular Season - 9 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 14:00

East Bengal

PPG 1.83 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bengaluru

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+18.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.6%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.8%1-18.4%1-24.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.0%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.0%3-17.5%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-17.4%4+-24.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.0% 61.7% 1.62 +5.3%

Draw 18.7% 27.4% 3.65 -31.8%

Away win 16.3% 20.8% 4.80 -21.8%

Over 2.5 65.8% 55.6% 1.80 +18.4%

Over 3.5 43.9% 33.9% 2.95 +29.5%

BTTS 59.4% 57.8% 1.73 +2.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 60%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.4%

H 65% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 9.0%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 1–0 7.8%

#5 3–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

East Bengal2.3

Bengaluru1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.9%

Form & verdict PPG

EAST BENGAL · PPG 1.83

BENGALURU · PPG 3.00

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (3.00) strong but model favors Home (P=65.0%)

Win probability 1X2

East Bengal (H) 65.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +5.3%

Draw 18.7%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -31.8%

Bengaluru (A) 16.3%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

East Bengal face Bengaluru in India - Indian Super League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Bengal a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Bengaluru 16%, so East Bengal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for East Bengal and 1.1 for Bengaluru (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Bengal are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 3.00 for Bengaluru. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 3-3.

East Bengal vs Bengaluru Prediction— India - Indian Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

More India - Indian Super League Predictions