East Bengal vs Bengaluru Prediction— India - Indian Super League

India - Indian Super League Regular Season - 9 Salt Lake Stadium· Kolkata Thursday, April 16, 2026 14:00

East Bengal PPG 1.83

3-3 MISS

Bengaluru PPG 3.00

Over3.5· +29.5% ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

East Bengal face Bengaluru in India - Indian Super League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives East Bengal a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Bengaluru 16%, so East Bengal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for East Bengal and 1.1 for Bengaluru (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, East Bengal are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 3.00 for Bengaluru. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.5%. This match finished 3-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 65.0%

Odds: 1.62 EV: +5.3%

Draw 18.7%

Odds: 3.65 EV: -31.8%

Away 16.3%

Odds: 4.80 EV: -21.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 65.8% Odds: 1.80 +18.4%

Over 3.5 43.9% Odds: 2.95 +29.5%

BTTS 59.4% Odds: 1.73 +2.8%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

East Bengal

2.31

Bengaluru

1.08

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +18.4% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+29.5%)

Verdict & Form

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (3.00) strong but model favors Home (P=65.0%)