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Sebail vs Simal Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Regular Season - 22 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 13:00

Sebail

PPG 1.91 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Simal

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 86.8% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-11.5%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.2%1-14.5%1-21.2%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-012.7%2-16.9%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-17.1%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-021.5%4+-111.7%4+-23.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 86.8% 85.5% 1.17 +1.6%

Draw 9.4% 17.4% 5.75 -46.0%

Away win 3.8% 9.1% 11.00 -58.2%

Over 2.5 70.1% — — —

Over 3.5 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

BTTS 39.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 78%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob39.9%

H 87% / xG 3.1-0.5 / O2.5 70% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 13.0%

#2 2–0 12.7%

#3 4–0✓ 10.0%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sebail3.1

Simal0.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.1% · O3.5 PROB 48.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SEBAIL · PPG 1.91

SIMAL · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.91), Away POOR (0.60) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sebail (H) 86.8%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV +1.6%

Draw 9.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -46.0%

Simal (A) 3.8%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV -58.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sebail face Simal in Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sebail a 87% chance, the draw 9% and Simal 4%, so Sebail are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Sebail and 0.5 for Simal (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sebail are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.60 for Simal. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Sebail vs Simal Prediction— Azerbaijan - Birinci Dasta

Match Preview & Prediction

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