Leagues / ENGLAND / League One
League One
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 51 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
35.3%
1X2
18/51
51.0%
O/U 2.5
26/51
52.9%
BTTS
27/51
37.3%
Exact score
19/51
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
44
Settled
54.5%
Hit rate
24/44
1.72
Avg odds
-13.9%
ROI
-6.1u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=21 47.6% HIT · AVG 1.79 · -29.5% ROI
BTTS · N=19 63.2% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +0.3% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.84 · -40.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.22 · +122.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-63.8%
ROI
✓ Solid
7
Bets
43%
Hit
-30.1%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
14
Bets
71%
Hit
+17.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
18
Bets
56%
Hit
-18.3%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 10 PICKS · 8 HIT · 2 MISS
2 MAY AFC Wimbledon vs Huddersfield BTTS -7% 0–4 MISS2 MAY Wycombe vs Rotherham Home -22% 3–2 HIT2 MAY Stevenage vs Wigan Athletic — NO PICK 1–0 —2 MAY Reading vs Blackpool BTTS -12% 0–1 MISS2 MAY Port Vale vs Lincoln City — NO PICK 0–2 —2 MAY Peterborough vs Doncaster BTTS -22% 1–3 HIT2 MAY Northampton vs Plymouth BTTS -10% 2–3 HIT2 MAY Mansfield vs Cardiff City BTTS -23% 5–4 HIT2 MAY Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion BTTS -7% 2–2 HIT2 MAY Exeter City vs Bradford BTTS -13% 1–2 HIT2 MAY Bolton vs Luton Town BTTS -22% 2–3 HIT2 MAY Barnsley vs Stockport BTTS -10% 1–3 HITApril 2026 // 2 PICKS · 0 HIT · 2 MISS
28 APR Peterborough vs Mansfield BTTS -14% 0–0 MISS28 APR Stockport vs Port Vale — NO PICK 1–2 —28 APR Northampton vs Barnsley Over 2.5 +2% 0–1 MISS