Leagues / ENGLAND / League One
League One
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 70 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
40.0%
1X2
28/70
50.0%
O/U 2.5
35/70
47.1%
BTTS
33/70
34.3%
Exact score
24/70
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
21
Settled
28.6%
Hit rate
6/21
1.94
Avg odds
-51.6%
ROI
-10.8u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=14 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.96 · -56.1% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.80 · -55.0% ROI
BTTS · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.67 · -100.0% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 2.22 · +122.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.25 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-63.8%
ROI
✓ Solid
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-64.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
17%
Hit
-63.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
5
Bets
60%
Hit
-13.4%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 6 PICKS · 3 HIT · 3 MISS
2 SEPT Wigan vs Milton Keynes Dons BTTS -8% 3–1 HIT2 SEPT Luton vs Stockport County Over 2.5 +14% 2–0 MISS2 SEPT Barnsley vs Blackpool BTTS -14% 2–1 HIT2 SEPT Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon BTTS -5% 4–1 HIT2 SEPT Reading vs Mansfield Town BTTS -0% 5–0 MISS1 SEPT Peterborough vs Stevenage BTTS -5% 0–0 MISSAugust 2026 // 7 PICKS · 2 HIT · 5 MISS
30 AUG AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan BTTS -7% 1–0 MISS30 AUG Mansfield Town vs Luton Over 2.5 -4% 5–2 HIT29 AUG Blackpool vs Peterborough BTTS -17% 4–0 MISS29 AUG Stevenage vs Doncaster — NO PICK 2–2 —29 AUG Stockport County vs Wycombe BTTS -11% 5–1 HIT29 AUG Leyton Orient vs Barnsley — NO PICK 1–3 —29 AUG Plymouth vs Bradford BTTS -15% 2–0 MISS22 AUG Doncaster vs Barnsley BTTS -21% 0–0 MISS22 AUG Stockport County vs Blackpool HO1.5 1–2 MISS