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Al-Hidd vs Al-Muharraq Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 18 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 16:00

Al-Hidd

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Al-Muharraq

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 79.5% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a clear edge.

+19.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-112.4%0-215.2%0-312.4%0-4+13.5%1 1-02.7%1-16.7%1-28.1%1-36.6%1-4+7.2%2 2-00.7%2-11.8%2-22.2%2-31.8%2-4+1.9%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.2% 18.2% 5.50 -65.9%

Draw 14.3% 25.3% 3.95 -43.5%

Away win 79.5% 66.7% 1.50 +19.3%

Over 2.5 57.1% 57.1% 1.75 -0.1%

Over 3.5 34.7% 35.1% 2.85 -1.1%

BTTS 37.8% 55.6% 1.80 -32.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob37.8%

A 80% / xG 0.5-2.4 / O2.5 57% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.2%

#2 0–1✓ 12.4%

#3 0–3 12.4%

#4 1–2 8.1%

#5 0–4 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Hidd0.5

Al-Muharraq2.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-HIDD · PPG 1.25

AL-MUHARRAQ · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Hidd (H) 6.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -65.9%

Draw 14.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -43.5%

Al-Muharraq (A) 79.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV +19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Hidd face Al-Muharraq in Bahrain - Premier League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Hidd a 6% chance, the draw 14% and Al-Muharraq 80%, so Al-Muharraq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for Al-Hidd and 2.4 for Al-Muharraq (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Hidd are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.50 for Al-Muharraq. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Al-Hidd vs Al-Muharraq Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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