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Shirak vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 16 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 12:00

Shirak

PPG 0.78 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

BKMA

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-17.9%0-26.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.4%1-111.3%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.1%2-26.2%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.7% 37.7% 2.65 -5.4%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -21.9%

Away win 39.9% 41.7% 2.40 -4.2%

Over 2.5 56.9% 51.3% 1.95 +10.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% 29.0% 3.45 +19.0%

BTTS 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shirak1.4

BKMA1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SHIRAK · PPG 0.78

BKMA · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.78), Away POOR (0.56)

Win probability 1X2

Shirak (H) 35.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -5.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -21.9%

BKMA (A) 39.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shirak face BKMA in Armenia - Premier League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shirak a 36% chance, the draw 24% and BKMA 40%, so BKMA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Shirak and 1.5 for BKMA (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shirak are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.56 for BKMA. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Shirak vs BKMA Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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