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Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 14:00

Septemvri Sofia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Spartak Varna

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-15.7%0-23.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.6%1-110.3%1-27.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.9%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.2%3-15.7%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 52.4% 1.91 -8.1%

Draw 22.9% 29.9% 3.35 -23.3%

Away win 28.9% 28.2% 3.55 +2.6%

Over 2.5 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Over 3.5 39.2% 31.3% 3.20 +25.4%

BTTS 62.2% 58.8% 1.70 +5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.2%

H 48% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Septemvri Sofia1.8

Spartak Varna1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SEPTEMVRI SOFIA · PPG 1.00

SPARTAK VARNA · PPG 0.71

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Septemvri Sofia (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -8.1%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -23.3%

Spartak Varna (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Septemvri Sofia face Spartak Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Septemvri Sofia a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Spartak Varna 29%, so Septemvri Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.4 for Spartak Varna (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Septemvri Sofia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Spartak Varna. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions