Septemvri Sofia vs Spartak Varna Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Bulgaria - First League Regular Season - 30 Stadion Dragalevtsi· Sofia Thursday, April 16, 2026 14:00

Septemvri Sofia PPG 1.00

0-0 MISS

Spartak Varna PPG 0.71

Over3.5· +25.4% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Septemvri Sofia face Spartak Varna in Bulgaria - First League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Septemvri Sofia a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Spartak Varna 29%, so Septemvri Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Septemvri Sofia and 1.4 for Spartak Varna (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Septemvri Sofia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.71 for Spartak Varna. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 48.1%

Odds: 1.91 EV: -8.1%

Draw 22.9%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -23.3%

Away 28.9%

Odds: 3.55 EV: +2.6%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.5% Odds: 1.85 +13.8%

Over 3.5 39.2% Odds: 3.20 +25.4%

BTTS 62.2% Odds: 1.70 +5.7%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✘

5th 2-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Septemvri Sofia

1.81

Spartak Varna

1.36

Model SuggestionBTTS +5.7% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+25.4%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5/Under 33%

BTTS/No 33%

Score Hit 17%

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.71)