Today / Bulgaria - First League / Montana vs Slavia Sofia

Montana vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 16:30

Montana

PPG 0.71 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Slavia Sofia

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+12.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-113.4%0-212.0%0-37.1%0-4+4.8%1 1-06.0%1-110.8%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-02.4%2-14.3%2-23.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.5%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.5% 26.0% 3.85 -36.5%

Draw 22.8% 30.3% 3.30 -24.8%

Away win 60.8% 54.1% 1.85 +12.5%

Over 2.5 48.0% 51.3% 1.95 -6.4%

Over 3.5 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.9%

BTTS 46.0% 56.5% 1.77 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 33%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 17%

ROI -100.0%

Bet Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob46.0%

A 61% / xG 0.8-1.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.4%

#2 0–2 12.0%

#3 1–1 10.8%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0✓ 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montana0.8

Slavia Sofia1.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTANA · PPG 0.71

SLAVIA SOFIA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.71) vs Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Montana (H) 16.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -36.5%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -24.8%

Slavia Sofia (A) 60.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montana face Slavia Sofia in Bulgaria - First League on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montana a 17% chance, the draw 23% and Slavia Sofia 61%, so Slavia Sofia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Montana and 1.8 for Slavia Sofia (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montana are averaging 0.71 points per game versus 1.14 for Slavia Sofia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Montana vs Slavia Sofia Prediction— Bulgaria - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Bulgaria - First League Predictions