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Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 11 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 18:30

Dock Sud

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 32.3% — a clear edge.

+128.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-14.5%0-24.6%0-33.1%0-4+2.6%1 1-03.8%1-17.9%1-28.1%1-35.6%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.4%2-17.0%2-27.2%2-34.9%2-4+4.1%3 3-02.0%3-14.2%3-24.3%3-32.9%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.8%4+-22.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.0% 38.2% 2.62 -10.9%

Draw 21.0% 36.4% 2.75 -42.3%

Away win 45.0% 35.7% 2.80 +26.0%

Over 2.5 73.6% 32.3% 3.10 +128.2%

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 72.4% 42.6% 2.35 +70.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob72.4%

A 45% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1✓ 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dock Sud1.8

Deportivo Merlo2.1

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DOCK SUD · PPG 1.00

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.75

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Dock Sud (H) 34.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -10.9%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -42.3%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 45.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +26.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dock Sud face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dock Sud a 34% chance, the draw 21% and Deportivo Merlo 45%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Dock Sud and 2.1 for Deportivo Merlo (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dock Sud are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.75 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +128.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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