Liga Nacional

GUATEMALA · 13 MATCHES TRACKED · 15 APR 2026 – 26 APR 2026

● LOW SAMPLE

FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 13 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

53.8%

1X2

7/13

69.2%

O/U 2.5

9/13

53.8%

BTTS

7/13

61.5%

Exact score

8/13

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

77.8%

Hit rate

7/9

1.87

Avg odds

+33.0%

ROI

+3.0u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.84 · +42.0% ROI

HOME WIN · N=4 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.89 · +8.5% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.95 · +95.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+69.5%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

50%

Hit

-10.0%

ROI

Match log

13 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

April 2026 // 12 PICKS · 9 HIT · 3 MISS

26 APR Guastatoya vs Marquense Home -6% 4–0 HIT 26 APR Xelaju vs Coban Imperial Home 2–1 HIT 26 APR Municipal vs Mixco Home 3–0 HIT 26 APR Malacateco vs Comunicaciones Over 2.5 1–0 MISS 26 APR Achuapa vs Antigua GFC Over 2.5 +15% 2–2 HIT 26 APR Aurora vs Mictlan BTTS -5% 1–1 HIT 19 APR Marquense vs Municipal Home +119% 1–3 MISS 19 APR Mixco vs Aurora Home +32% 4–0 HIT 19 APR Coban Imperial vs Achuapa Home +25% 3–1 HIT 19 APR Mictlan vs Xelaju BTTS +4% 2–3 HIT 17 APR Xelaju vs Achuapa — NO PICK 3–0 —16 APR Mictlan vs Mixco BTTS +23% 2–2 HIT 15 APR Aurora vs Marquense BTTS -7% 0–1 MISS