Liga Nacional

GUATEMALA · 34 MATCHES TRACKED · 15 APR 2026 – 31 AUG 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 34 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

70.6%

1X2

24/34

52.9%

O/U 2.5

18/34

55.9%

BTTS

19/34

55.9%

Exact score

19/34

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

81.8%

Hit rate

9/11

1.95

Avg odds

+46.9%

ROI

+5.2u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=6 83.3% HIT · AVG 1.96 · +42.2% ROI

BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.94 · +94.0% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.88 · +87.5% ROI

HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.10 · -100.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+72.5%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

75%

Hit

+45.3%

ROI

Match log

34 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

August 2026 // 13 PICKS · 9 HIT · 4 MISS

31 AUG Xelajú vs Mixco Over 2.5 +7% 4–1 HIT 30 AUG Comunicaciones vs Municipal — NO PICK 0–1 —30 AUG Aurora vs Malacateco HO1.5 1–0 MISS 29 AUG Guastatoya vs Marquense Home -14% 1–2 MISS 24 AUG Marquense vs Cobán Imperial BTTS -0% 2–1 HIT 23 AUG Antigua GFC vs Comunicaciones Home +7% 2–0 HIT 23 AUG Municipal vs Xelajú Home -9% 2–0 HIT 23 AUG Mixco vs Guastatoya Home +7% 4–2 HIT 19 AUG Cobán Imperial vs Antigua GFC BTTS -5% 0–2 MISS 16 AUG Comunicaciones vs Malacateco Home -2% 4–2 HIT 15 AUG Cobán Imperial vs Mixco Home -11% 3–2 HIT 15 AUG Guastatoya vs Municipal BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS 9 AUG Antigua GFC vs Guastatoya Home -11% 2–0 HIT 9 AUG Municipal vs Cobán Imperial Home -17% 2–0 HIT 8 AUG Malacateco vs Xelajú — NO PICK 2–2 —