Mictlan vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Guatemala - Liga Nacional Clausura - 20 Estadio La Asuncion· Asuncion Mita Thursday, April 16, 2026 23:00

Mictlan PPG 2.00

2-2 HIT CS5

Mixco PPG 0.89

Over3.5· +72.3% ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Mictlan face Mixco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mictlan a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Mixco 31%, so Mictlan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mictlan and 1.4 for Mixco (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mictlan are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Mixco. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +72.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 46.1%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -3.2%

Draw 23.0%

Odds: 3.10 EV: -28.7%

Away 30.9%

Odds: 3.35 EV: +3.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.1% Odds: 2.35 +45.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% Odds: 4.33 +72.3%

BTTS 63.1% Odds: 1.95 +23.1%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Mictlan

1.78

Mixco

1.42

Model SuggestionBTTS +23.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+72.3%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5/Under 69%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 30.4%

Bet Hit 71% (7 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=46.1%