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Mictlan vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Clausura - 20 ·Thursday, April 16, 2026, 23:00

Mictlan

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mixco

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.8%0-24.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.2%1-110.3%1-27.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.5%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.8%3-15.4%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-13.6%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 47.6% 2.10 -3.2%

Draw 23.0% 32.3% 3.10 -28.7%

Away win 30.9% 29.9% 3.35 +3.5%

Over 2.5 62.1% 42.6% 2.35 +45.9%

Over 3.5 39.8% 23.1% 4.33 +72.3%

BTTS 63.1% 51.3% 1.95 +23.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 62%

ROI 33.0%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 1–0 7.2%

#5 2–2✓ 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mictlan1.8

Mixco1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MICTLAN · PPG 2.00

MIXCO · PPG 0.89

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=46.1%

Win probability 1X2

Mictlan (H) 46.1%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -3.2%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -28.7%

Mixco (A) 30.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mictlan face Mixco in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Thursday, April 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mictlan a 46% chance, the draw 23% and Mixco 31%, so Mictlan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mictlan and 1.4 for Mixco (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mictlan are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.89 for Mixco. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +72.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Mictlan vs Mixco Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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