Leagues / BULGARIA / First League
First League
● LOW SAMPLE
FEWER THAN 10 SETTLED PICKS — NO VERDICT YET
Upcoming First League predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT16:00 Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Home 53% 2.50 +32%4 SEPT18:15 Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Plovdiv Home 64% 2.10 +35%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 35 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
62.9%
1X2
22/35
45.7%
O/U 2.5
16/35
54.3%
BTTS
19/35
42.9%
Exact score
15/35
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
5
Settled
20.0%
Hit rate
1/5
1.89
Avg odds
-56.0%
ROI
-2.8u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -26.7% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -100.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.91 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-45.0%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
1
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
2 SEPT Slavia Sofia vs Levski Sofia BTTS +14% 1–2 HITAugust 2026 // 12 PICKS · 6 HIT · 6 MISS
31 AUG Arda Kardzhali vs Botev Vratsa Home -4% 2–0 HIT30 AUG Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets Away -20% 1–1 MISS30 AUG Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia Away -8% 1–3 HIT30 AUG CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna Home -6% 3–1 HIT28 AUG Slavia Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia Home -6% 1–1 MISS28 AUG CSKA 1948 vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home -4% 2–0 HIT24 AUG Botev Vratsa vs Botev Plovdiv BTTS -4% 1–0 MISS24 AUG Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali — NO PICK 0–1 —23 AUG Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA 1948 Away -13% 1–0 MISS22 AUG Ludogorets vs Slavia Sofia Home -32% 1–1 MISS22 AUG Levski Sofia vs Spartak Varna Home -20% 6–0 HIT17 AUG Spartak Varna vs Septemvri Sofia Home +24% 0–1 MISS17 AUG Arda Kardzhali vs Lokomotiv Sofia — NO PICK 3–1 —16 AUG CSKA Sofia vs Botev Vratsa Home -22% 5–0 HIT